The Stop Obama Tour

The Our Country Deserves Better PAC is a conservative PAC that has been trying to fill the void left by the McCain campaign in Michigan for the past few days.  Their "Stop Obama Tour" travels on a bus decorated with images of McCain and Palin and gets voters riled up for the Republican ticket.  Unfortunately for this effort, Obama supporters are still very active in Michigan and are urging people in all parts of the state to vote Democratic.

Michigan expected to vote Obama in 10 days!

For a period of time Michigan saw an abundance of presidential staffers, volunteers, and offices, candidate appearances, media and more media.  But ever since John McCain pulled his campaign from Michigan, basically forfeiting the state's 17 electoral votes to Barack Obama, no presidential or vice presidential candidate has appeared there.  Michigan is now understood to be a strong Obama state, no longer a battleground.

This election, Michigan voters are most motivated by economic issues.  The state has faced massive manufacturing job loss and overall unemployment.  It has also had one of the highest rates of home foreclosures.  At the 50 day mark, this state was too close to call because the growing suburban population largely supported Bush in 2004.  Those voters were motivated by conservative social values.  However, in light of recent events the economy is overshadowing conservative values for Michigan voters and this is good for Obama.

A Big 10 Battleground poll from 10/19 through 10/22 puts Obama at 58% support to McCain's 36%.  This poll had a 562 sample size.  A less recent Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP poll with a larger sample size, 1043 eligible voters, also puts Obama significantly ahead with 545 to McCain's 38%.

The graph below, from Real Clear Politics, shows Obama's steady climb in Michigan polls.  You can see that Michigan is a strong Obama state with ten days to go until Election Day.

Detroit News Endorses McCain

The Detroit News endorsed John McCain today because they say we need "an experienced, proven leader."  Although they acknowledge that McCain has run an ineffective campaign, failing "to find his voice on the campaign trail, rarely revealing the appealing personal characteristics and refreshing political views that caused us to endorse him in Michigan's Republican primary in January," the publication argues that McCain still offers the stable and secure future for the country.

Democrats gain promise from GOP not to discriminate based on forclosures

A lawsuit against the Michigan Republican Party by the Democrats was dropped after a settlement was reached. The agreement states that if a person's address appears on a list of foreclosed homes that in no way limits their right to vote. The parties have now agreed in writing not to challenge anyone's eligibility to vote on that basis. The lawsuit was a result of an article published by the Michigan Messenger quoting a Michigan Republican official claiming the state GOP would use foreslosure lists to turn voters away at the polls.

Incumbent Democratic senator's seat is safe

Incumbent Democratic Senator Carl Levin is expected to coast to an easy victory in November.  His Republican opponent state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk has raised $147,298 compared to Levin's campaign funds of at least $7.6 million.  Levin has served in the U.S. Senate since 1979, is well respected, and is the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.  On the other hand, Hoogendyk is known by some as extremely conservative and not known at all by many.  He has not been financially supported buy the Republican National Committee.  The trends in this Senate race support a choice of Barack Obama for many Michigan voters.

Largest newspaper in Detroit endorses Obama

The Detroit Free Press endorsed Barack Obama today.  The decision is summed up in the first line of the article, "Good judgment makes good presidents."  The article discusses extensively Obama's basic philosophy and his qualifications for dealing with the some of the most important issues.  The Free Press writes that Obama's economic recovery plan acknowledges the reality of the situation, and that he has proved to be a more sophisticated thinker on foreign policy.  Furthermore, the paper expressed disappointment in McCain's campaign decisions, namely the selection of Sarah Palin for his vice presidential candidate and his impulsiveness on policy matters.  The publication explains its change from previous endorsements.

The Free Press has twice endorsed McCain for the Republican presidential nomination, in 2000 and this year. The McCain running against Obama in this general election has not been the same candidate; he has been nastier, less consistent and, since his acceptance speech at the GOP National Convention, frankly uninspiring.

One writer explains that the decision is truly based on perceptions of good judgement on Obama's part, not shared social and political values.

The Detroit Free Press is the largest newspaper in Detroit, Michigan.  It reaches up to 40% of Detroit adults on Sunday (today, the day of the endorsement).

Obama reducing Michigan staff

The Obama campaign is pulling some staff members from Michigan and sending them elsewhere with less than three weeks until the election.  Some say that the move is long overdue, since the Obama campaign is still leading with strong numbers in the state.  The campaign says that more than 200 Obama staffers will remain, with the 61st campaign office set to open this weekend.  The Detroit Free Press writes:

Political observers said they were surprised it took Obama so long to make the move. States are winner-take-all, so there’s no benefit to winning by a larger margin, but a huge benefit to winning by a hair.

Is Obama truly devoted to winning the largest margin possible in Michigan?  It is more likely that he is taking nothing for granted.  Michigan may look good in the current polls and have a strong history of voting for Democratic presidential candidates, but the state also has a growing suburban, Republican-leaning population.  Recently, economic troubles have some people leaning toward Obama despite more conservative social values, but there is still time for the election to turn around.  It doesn't look likely, though, with national economic discussions changing from a focus on a few bad days to a recession.  This does not bode well for McCain.

Michigan has also gotten tied up in the ACORN controversy.  In Michigan, ACORN has registered over 200,000 new voters, and some new voter registration applications have been found to be false.  ACORN's chief organizer in Michigan, David Lagstein, says that it was a "partisan attack" that the McCain campaign released harsh criticism of Obama's relations with the group on the same day a former ACORN worker's arrest for falsifying registrations was announced.  However, Lagstein did not condemn the arrest.

Bush visits Republican stronghold in Michigan

President Bush visited Grand Rapids yesterday, October 15, for a fundraiser. Grand Rapids is a heavily Republican area that has strong ties to his administration (through Bush, Cheney, and past Republicans). Bush also surprised deli-goers and met with local business leaders. At this meeting Bush spoke with great confidence and optimism about the economy, perhaps in an effort to boost voters' view of the McCain campaign without really mentioning the Republican presidential candidate. McCain raised money successfully from the Grand Rapids area, but recently a McCain supporter and chair of his 2000 local campaign has said that he is displeased with the Republican's campaign and is not supporting either candidate. Disappointed Michigan Republicans say that McCain is no longer about straight talk and has not conducted a respectful campaign.

On another note, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm was invited to tonight's debate at Hofstra University in New York by the Obama campaign and planned to attend. She was a Clinton supporter during the primaries and helped Senator Biden prepare for his debate against Governor Palin. McCain and Obama spoke only about domestic issues, mostly relating back to the country's current economic troubles. These domestic issues - the economy, jobs, healthcare, education - are what resonate the most with Michigan voters right now. Headlines seem to be declaring that McCain pressed Obama and put him on the defensive... but did McCain win on the issues? In Michigan, Obama has maintained a substantial lead since McCain's campaign left the state, and we will have to see if the polls change significantly in the next couple days.

Voting rights controversies

The Michigan Secretary of State's office has denied allegations in a New York Times article from today claiming that Michigan is one of several swing states that has removed many people, "tens of thousands of eligible voters," from the voter rolls in clumsy attempts to comply with federal law, the Help America Vote Act.  The removal of voters in this way in fact appears to be a breech of federal law.  The NYT printed that approximately 33,000 voters were removed from the rolls in Michigan, but a Secretary of State spokesperson has countered that number, and claims that the newspaper could not explain to them the methodology used to examine state records and Social Security data to arrive at that figure.  The spokesperson says that about 11,000 people have been removed for legitimate reasons such as moving out of state or passing away.  The New York Times notes in their article that since the Democratic campaign has been working so hard to register new voters that they will suffer the most from voters being removed from the rolls.

Meanwhile, the Michigan Messenger is fighting a defamation lawsuit over an article quoting James Carabelli, the Macomb County Republican Party Chairman, as saying the Republicans planned to use foreclosure lists to block people from voting.  The publication stands by its reporter and will not issue a retraction, although Carabelli claims that his words were changed or fabricated.  The Michigan Messenger's parent organization, the nonpartisan Center for Independent Media, also stands by the reporter's integrity.  The reporter claims to have notes that back up the quote from Carabelli.  It is interesting that the article in the Messenger article seems to have generated substantial reporting and outcry from bloggers and some political commentators, but not from a lot of mainstream media.  Nonetheless, enough of an outcry was raised that the Michigan GOP must respond in an action as forceful as a lawsuit.  If nothing else, this shows the upcoming influence of informal, Internet reporting.  It also highlights issues of accuracy with online reporting.

United Auto Workers advertise for Obama in swing states

The United Auto Workers union (UAW) has launched a $3 million advertising campaign in support of Barack Obama.  The ads feature UAW members talking about problems with healthcare and manufacturing jobs, and they will run on TV, radio, and the Internet in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  Although McCain has pulled his campaign from Michigan and the state has been turned blue on most electoral maps, Michigan is still in play as a key state for Obama to win in order to win the Presidency in November.  This as campaign is one of many signals that Michigan isn't being taken for granted by Obama or his supporters.  Nonetheless, a Detroit Free Press columnist lists "Pull your resources and staff out of Michigan to go campaign in Maine" as one step to losing a presidential election.

Bruce Springsteen follows Jay-Z in Michigan for Barack

Monday was the last day to register to vote in Michigan, and the Democrats worked tirelessly until the last minute to register new voters, hoping not only to boost support for Obama but also to help down ticket Democrats. Especially since McCain has pulled his campaign from Michigan, the state GOP has focused more on maintaining its current Republicans over registering new voters. On Monday, former University of Michigan football star Desmond Howard encouraged people to register on Obama's behalf in Detroit. Later in the day, Bruce Springsteen performed at Eastern Michigan University, also for the Democratic candidate (Springsteen's performace follows Jay-Z's performance on Saturday). The concert was free, and followed performances in Columbus, Ohio and Philadelphia over the weekend.

All this goes to show that the Obama campaign is taking nothing for granted in Michigan, with or without McCain campaigning there. They consider it worthwhile to engage in extensive voter registration and GOTV efforts there because they know that it could still be close in November. However, after McCain's move away from Michigan and the continuous if not increasing focus on domestic issues, things look alright for Obama in this state with an 8.9% unemployment rate. This voter's views reflect many in Michigan:

"I've been a Republican all my life, but right now I'm not sure,'' said Joyce Moynihan, a retired homemaker and member of St. Mark Catholic Church in Macomb County who's leaning toward Obama. "Of course, I'm anti-abortion, but you can battle this forever. The economy and the war have got to be addressed'' and
"something dramatic has to happen,'' she said.

Several people interviewed see Obama as the better candidate to deal with the economy, and that topic is extremely important to Michigan voters (it was even before the financial world came tumbling down in recent weeks). Michigan is struggling to transition from an industrial state to something else that they haven't figured out yet. They have lost 40,000 manufacturing jobs in the past year. With their future so uncertain, many see more potential for domestic stability in Democrat Barack Obama. Nonetheless, there are cries to the McCain campaign to return to Michigan. This blogger says Michigan voters are mavericks, too, and directs readers to sign a petition to ask for McCain's return.

Mich. Latinos might elect Barack, Palin wants to go back, and music

Quick update: Michigan's voter registration deadline is today, October 6.

On Saturday, Jay Z performed in support of Obama in Michigan. Tickets were free, and all attendees were given multiple opportunities to register to vote - the event was billed as "Operation Registration." The Obama campaign will continue to push voter registration until the Monday deadline.

A study from Michigan State University's Julian Samora Research Institute (JSRI) has predicted that the the Latino voter turnout will hit 80% this election. Furthermore, this study does not take into account those new citizens or state residents who likely participated in voter registration drives close to the Monday deadline and were not included in the number of Michigan Latino registered voters. Latinos tend to vote Democratic, especially in presidential elections. More good news for the Obama campaign in Michigan.

And Sarah Palin continues to question the McCain campaign pull from Michigan, either expressing genuine disagreement with the campaign decision-makers, or just fulfilling her role as the gutsy gal who openly disagrees with her running mate sometimes.

Palin wasn't part of the decision, thinks McCain should stay in Michigan

On Friday, October 3, Gov. Sarah Palin visited Dallas.  While here, she spoke with Fox News and revealed that she learned about the decision to pull the McCain campaign out of Michigan in the morning paper.  She was not phased by admitting that she had not been included in this decision, and simply said that she disagreed and would like to continue to speak with Michigan voters.  Her comments reinforced those from the debate the night before, that she and John McCain are "a team of mavericks" and can't agree all the time.  It is media moments like this that Sarah Palin manages to use to boost her image as an independent thinker, when they could be used to expose her limited role in the campaign.  She also always maintains her 'do what it takes' language, talking in terms of "people who are hurting" more so than polls and budgets.

Many have labeled McCain's change in state focus as a bad sign, including Fox News' Susan Estrich and the Michigan Republican Party.  On CNN, John King explored some potential consequences of McCain's decision, noting that Michigan's neighbor Wisconsin went to Dukakis in 1988.  He observed that Michigan could cause a domino effect in Obama's favor, particularly as economic issues continue to take the forefront of the debate.

McCain forfeits Michigan, takes resources elsewhere

AP reports that McCain is abandoning campaign efforts in Michigan.  He is removing staff, limiting advertising, and canceling visits.  Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida have taken precedence as states that are more likely to go to McCain on November 4.  Barack Obama held his third event in Michigan in the past five days at Michigan State University, and did not reveal that he was at all aware of McCain's decision.

Earlier, a local news station reported that McCain canceled a trip to the state next week without explanation. Then, Democrats and Republicans who track the campaign's advertising said the Republican did not buy airtime for Michigan for next week, though he did so for every other state where he's been on the air. And, there was no indication that the Republican National Committee would continue running ads there either.

The McCain campaign originally targeted Michigan because of Obama's mediocre performance with white working class voters, but Obama is considered better qualified to help the economy and McCain is still tied to Bush in many people's minds.  It has proven a situation that is not worth the resources for McCain; he was spending $1 million a week there.  One thing is for sure, though, he did drive Obama to spend considerable resources in the state, make several visits and maintaining extensive staffed offices.  In the final stretch of the election, both candidates are narrowing their focus as much as they can.  Despite a 50-state strategy, Obama has also pulled his campaign from Alaska, Georgia, and North Dakota.

It will be interesting to see how Michigan voters respond to this change, and how the Obama campaign adjusts its presence in Michigan accordingly.  Will they minimize their presence, too?  Obama has yet to hint that he is aware of the change, although it is without doubt that the campaign is already planning a response.