Recent Appearances

Obama's rally topped a weekend of high profile campaigning in Michigan.  Michelle Obama, Senator Joe Biden, and his wife Jill Biden all accompanied Barack in Detroit today, while Hillary Clinton campaigned for her former rival yesterday in Grand Ledge.

“As Detroit goes, so goes the state of Michigan.”

Obama, accompanied by Michelle, Joe, and Jill, visited Detroit today and appeared with new mayor, Ken Cockrel Jr., at an open-air rally.  Cockrel took the stage first and reminded the audience of the state's problems with jobs and the auto industry.  Obama was introduced by Denise Ilitch, daughter of Detroit Red Wings owner Mike Ilitch, and both Obamas and Bidens received Red Wings jerseys with their names on them.  Obama focused strongly on the economy during his speech, and heavily criticized McCain for past support of government deregulation.

Three Detroit residents spoke with the Detroit Free Press, and all reacted favorably to Obama's speech, specifically citing his economic plans and power to unite the people.

The economy is going to be the deciding factor with many voters, especially in Michigan.  The state has the highest unemployment rate at 8.9% and has lost over 300,000 manufacturing jobs.  The mortgage foreclosure rate is also among the highest in the country.

Obama and McCain are paying a lot of attention to Michigan, but Susan Demas, a self described "political junkie and policy wonk" from Lansing, says the focus on Michigan is wasted breath and that the "economically mutilated state that's been reliably blue since 1992" will not break form.

GOP accused of voter supression

Democracy Now! reports that the Democratic National Committee and the Obama campaign have filed a federal lawsuit in opposition to what they call a voter suppression project by the Republican Party in Michigan's battleground within a battleground, Macomb County.  The Michigan Messenger reported that the Macomb County Republican Party plans to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting on Election Day.  The effort would disproportionately affect African American voters (who tend to vote Democratic).

The Republican Party denies the accusation and even direct quotes from the article in the Michigan Messenger, but the publication is standing by its reporting.  The Michigan Messenger is part of the Center for Independent Media and refutes claims that they are working with the Obama campaign.

It is hard to tell what is actually going on in a lot of these cases, but it does draw attention to the huge importance of Michigan votes to both campaigns.  On both sides accusations are flying - the Democrats say that the GOP has a history of disenfranchising voters, while the Republicans are saying that both sides will be using voter caging to limit voters at the polls.  These lawsuits and accusations are indicators of both the importance of the Michigan race specifically and the African American vote in general.

ACLU becomes active in voting rights case

The Detroit Free Press reports that the ACLU and the United States Student Association have filed a lawsuit against Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land to stop two voter purging programs.  The advocacy groups claim that hundreds of thousands of voters could be disenfranchised before the November election.

The first program cancels the registration of voters who receive driver's licenses in other states and the second nullifies the registrations of new voters when their voter ID cards are returned as undeliverable.  The lawsuit holds that these programs are not in compliance with the National Voter Registration Act of 1993.

The ACLU of Michigan links the case to the growing importance of Michigan and its voters in the presidential election.  They hold that the voter purging programs will disproportionately affect students and low-income families that tend to be transient.  This lawsuit is part of the ACLU Voting Rights Project.

If these programs could remove 210,000 individuals from the voting rolls, as the lawsuit claims, then they could certainly have a large impact of the election, especially if those affected are students and low-income families.  High voter turnout generally favors Democrats, but we can only speculate if Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land has such villainous intentions as to limit Democratic turnout.  We will have to watch and see if the case is even resolved by the election.

Appearances

Joe Biden held rallies in St. Clair Shores and Flat Rock, Michigan today. NPR reports that Biden's tone was harsh on the McCain campaign, accusing McCain of Karl Rove/Bush-style campaigning. He emphasized McCain's supposed changed character from his former friend to the new candidate with false and low-life attacks. Biden spoke in subirban Detroit.

On Wednesday McCain and Palin will hold a town hall meeting in Grand Rapids.

McCain, Obama use different strategies...

A Lansing State Journal article reports on the battle for the Detroit area and, more than anything, its suburbs.

Of McCain's 14 current offices in the state, 7 are located in or near the Detroit metro area. McCain is fighting specifically for Macomb County which contains part of the Detroit area, although the city proper is not in Macomb. The campaign has plans of opening more offices within the week, planning on 30 total.

The Obama campaign, on the other hand, is fighting for votes in every part of the state. Obama has 34 campaign offices in the state, all but one in the southern half of the Lower Peninsula. The campaign has plans of opening 5 more offices soon.

The Obama campaign is targeting young voters and working the Michigan streets, while the McCain campaign is focusing on male, older, wealthier voters. The campaigns have broken the state down to extremely local battleground locations.

Fifty days to go and Michigan is somewhere in between.

The New York Times and Pollster.com both call Michigan a toss up, and it is indeed too close to call.

A recent Zogby poll gives Obama a lead of 49% to 43% and a Rasmussen poll give Obama 51% to 46%.  On the other hand, a recent InsiderAdvantage poll give McCain a slight 44% to 45%.

In the past elections, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004, Michigan has voted Democratic.  It also has a Democratic governor and two Democratic U.S. Senators.  However, it has nine U.S. representatives to six Democrats.  Although Michigan has a fairly strong Democratic history, it has experienced enormous growth in the conservative Outstate, or suburban areas.  In 2004, Joh Kerry carried the three-county metro-Detroit area, and Bush carried the rest of the state, which now casts 61% of the vote.  The Upper Peninsula, historically Democratic, also voted for Bush.

Because of these dueling dynamics Michigan is too close to call.  The issue that will play a huge role in the outcome in this state is the economy.  Michigan has been facing economic trouble since 2000 and voters will be sensitive to Obama and McCain's stances on how to pick up the economy.  It is also questionable whether they will be more responsive to Joe Biden or Sarah Palin, both of whom are meant to reach out to working and middle class America.  The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) is launching a major ad campaign in battleground states, including Michigan, highlighting the importance of economic issues.  This effort comes as the Republican Party becomes especially energized in support of Sarah Palin's vice presidential nominee.

Detroit, the usual solid Democratic voting block, has also been facing the turmoil of former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's scandals, felony charges, and resignation.  This may or may not have an effect of presidential voting.  It has not received large amounts of national coverage, but it has marred the reputation of the Michigan Democrats, even though Kilpatrick has not always enjoyed the full support of the state Democratic Party and the labor establishment.

Intoduction to Michigan politics and recent polling

Michigan is known for its industrial economy, namely the auto industry in Detroit, the states most populous city. The auto industry brought about a labor movement in Detroit in the 1930s with the formation of the United Auto Workers (UAW). In later years, autoworkers became a heavily Democratic voting bloc. The Michigan government has historically been generous to the poor and unemployed, as well to students, but this tradition was interrupted by the collapse of the domestic auto industry after the 1970s. It was after this point in time that Michigan became more experimental with its politics and less solidly Democratic.

Michigan is now an important battleground state with respect to presidential politics. The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation Poll from September 9 puts Obama and McCain in a dead heat in Michigan, with Obama at 49% and McCain at 45%.

Michigan has 17 electoral votes.